Friday, July 29, 2011

1997 - pre-Google time

In The nature of prediction and the information future: Arthur C. Clarke's Odyssey vision David Bawden predicted in 1997 the pain of information overload if we should not have Google or Bing in 2010. He used the vision of Clarke in 2010: Odyssey Two.
Note: Archie has already been used since ArpaNet, and webcrawlers were in their early stages. So this article might be in itself a paleofuture item. Anyway, Clarke's vision is interesting enough to cite both him and Bawden.

Clarke:

At least there was a sporting chance that what he was looking for was hidden somewhere in the immense body of existing scientific knowledge. Slowly and carefully, [he] set up an automatic search programme, designed for what it would exclude as much as what it would embrace. It should cut out all Earth-related references — they would certainly number in the millions — and concentrate entirely on extraterrestrial citations. 
...Intelligence was frequently wrong, and even more often confused by the avalanche of raw facts it had to evaluate... when you did not know what you were looking for, something that at first sight seemed irrelevant, or even nonsensical, might turn out to be a vital clue.


Bawden:
The prospect of having essentially all information available in digital form, rapidly accessibly from the desktop by a consistent interface, may seem an information worker's dream. In fact, it will rapidly turn into a nightmare, if systems and procedures are not quickly developed for filtering, prioritising, discarding and forgetting information, as well as for extracting nuggets from the pile: data mining, visualisation, etc. Philosophically, this may go against many of the 'traditional' values of the library/information professions, which have tended to emphasise acquiring, preserving and accessing 'all relevant material'.
Did Google help us to prevent Bawden's concerns? All required functionality is in place, although controlled by Google...


Using Xbox Kinect for business applications?

In Microsoft's Evolving Vision of the Cloud Michael Otey hopes in June '11 that the use of the Xbox Kinect for IT never materializes.

M. Otey:
We all saw Minority Report and Tom Cruise with the cool virtual monitor, but who really wants to have to connect their Xbox to a business system and wave their hands at it? Not me. The cloud seems like it could be the real future of computing, but the Kinect just seems like a desperate attempt to try to be cool. Hand waving is never good for demos, and I don’t think it’s going to replace the mouse anytime soon.
I personally think he's wrong at this point. My company for instance is developing solutions for healthcare, where kinect technology helps patients do their excercises in the right way. Medics can analyze the data instead of hoping the patients did the right thing.
We will see!

Chriet Titulaer and the future of Internet

A very popular scientist in the Netherlands was interviewed by Koen van Santvoord about his life as an often consulted space expert:  http://www.koentext.nl/art/carp-titulaer.pdf (published in Carp, date of publication unknown). According to an interview in WAVE 1996 above mentioned interview must be dated before 1995, for he regretted his mistake about the future of internet.

Carp interview:
Titulaer:
'Internet is here to stay. But it is not being used. Only large companies are still present'. ('Internet is er gewoon gekomen. Maar het wordt niet gebruikt. Alleen de grote bedrijven zitten nog op internet.')


WAVE interview:
Titulaer:
'Internet is one of my biggest mistakes during my career. I never saw that the use of it would be booming, especially by businesses.' ('Internet is één van mijn grootste missers in mijn carrière. Ik heb nooit ingezien dat het gebruik door met name bedrijven zo'n vlucht zou nemen.')



Not to blame Chriet Titulaer, for I was a big fan of his interviews in the nineties.
And, what about Microsoft? Before 1994 they also underestimated the importance of internet, while other companies already made their start with browsers, like NCSA.







My blog is superfluous...

I had the intention to blog about:
  • Predictions about ICT in the past en their outcomes
  • My predictions, for future input of my blog (creating a perpetuum blog)
But, to be honest, I am too late. This is what they call 'Paleofuture'. A great blog on this subject is Paleofuture blog, written by Matt Novak started in January of 2007. Matt has since become an accidental expert on past visions of the future, and oversees a tremendous physical archive of materials related to retro-futurism. A nice example is the prediction of face-to-face phone call in 1957, see http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2011/1/30/face-to-face-phone-calls-1957.html

Nevertheless, I will make my own selection of past predections and their outcomes. If they came true or not! Submissions by you are highly appreciated!